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Friday, July 12, 2013

Emerging new El Nino?

There has been some interesting development in the equatorial subsurface temperatures in the Pacific for the last two months. The positive temperature anomaly, which has been dominant in the upper 300 meters of the equatorial water body of the Western Pacific has spread eastward. Now we have a positive subsurface anomaly over the whole longitude range from 130E to 100 W. Only the far Eastern Pacific still shows a negative anomaly.

(Source:, pg. 11)

The last model simulations are from June 2013. Most of the models predicted ENSO neutral conditions through 2013 back then.

(Source:, pg. 26)

I am curious what the new model simulations, initialized with updated input data are going to say.

If one looks at the table of cold and warm episodes of ENSO, there has not been any period longer than four years from the end of an El Nino to the start of the following El Nino, going back to the year 1950. We are in the third year since the end of the last El Nino episode now. If it does not happen this year a new El Nino really will be due next year. Otherwise it would be unusual, if none occured compared to the frequency of occurrence for the period between 1950 and present.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

AGW denier Marc Morano of Climate Depot and CFACT suggests, "global warming skeptics" are defined by fantasies about lynching climate scientists

Besides Morano did not get the facts right with respect to my employment, since I am not a NASA scientist (I am a Columbia University scientist at GISS), why am I saying this? Because Morano asserts on the Climate Depot website, "NASA scientist Jan Perlwitz publicly warns global warming skeptics, 'I shoot you dead'".

The actual fact is that I strongly responded on my own behalf to a lynch fantasy against climate scientists (which came combined with a delusional analogy to Nazi-Germany), articulated by a specific anonymous individual with the alias Allencic who said,

Morano's claim my response to Allencic's lynch fantasy was addressed at "global warming skeptics" is a lie. Thus, when Morano interprets my response to this as a "warning" against "global warming skeptics" in general, he suggests this kind of lynch fantasies against climate scientists was a defining feature of "global warming skeptics". I did not say, and I do not think it was.

Also, by displaying my statement as something condemnable, even though it was a conditional statement for the case the addressed individual really tried to tar, feather and torch me, i.e., murder me, because I was a climate scientist, Morano also suggests that I did not have any right to self-defense in such a situation. Thus, AGW denier Marc Morano, who is paid by the conservative think thank  Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) for spreading his propaganda and lies on his website, implicitly suggests that climate scientists did not have a right to self-defense, when someone tried to murder them.

Marc Morano is an appalling example of lack of ethics and honesty on the side of the AGW deniers.

Statement of Macquarie University regarding the termination of Professor Murry Salby

Yesterday, anti-science blogger Anthony Watts of posted an article, "Professor Murry Salby, who is critical of AGW theory, is being disfranchised, exiled, from academia in Australia", in which Watts claims that Murry Salby was wronged by Macquarie University. The claim is based solely on assertions in an email by Salby to Anthony Watts. I participated in this thread until I got permanently banned, saying that I do not believe Salby's accusations just at face value. The anti-science crowd of "skeptics", being not very skeptical at this point, rushed to the usual judgement, ranting about the evil establishment suppressing "the truth" and punishing critical scientists. In one case the desire of violence against those evil climate scientists who say anthropogenic global warming was real, was articulated.

I think, one should not just listen to what Salby claims, one also should listen what the other side has to say. If Salby was wronged he can and should choose the legal means available to him. But I am not going to assume he was wronged just because he claims so in some email to an AGW denier website.

Macquarie University has released following statement regarding the matter on July 10, 2013, which reads,

"Macquarie University does not normally comment on the circumstances under which employees leave the University. However, we feel in this instance it is necessary to do so in order to correct misinformation.

The decision to terminate Professor Murry Salby’s employment with Macquarie University had nothing to do with his views on climate change nor any other views. The University supports academic freedom of speech and freedom to pursue research interests.

Professor Salby’s employment was terminated firstly, because he did not fulfil his academic obligations, including the obligation to teach. After repeated directions to teach, this matter culminated in his refusal to undertake his teaching duties and he failed to arrive at a class he had been scheduled to take.

The University took this matter very seriously as the education and welfare of students is a primary concern. The second reason for his termination involved breaches of University policies in relation to travel and use of University resources.

The termination of his employment followed an extensive and detailed internal process, including two separate investigations undertaken by a committee chaired by a former Australian Industrial Relations Commissioner and including a union nominee."

The third time is the charm and the anti-science blog

Previously, I had reported here that I had been declared "persona non grata" on Anthony Watts' anti-science blog (WUWT). The story then developed with Anthony Watts posting a comment on the blog here to the previous posting on July 7, 2013, where he retracted the announcement previously made on his blog (here is a screenshot of the previous announcement once more),

and where he also made a pathetic attempt to present it as if the banning had been only in my head. Later, he also publicly claimed that the statement about my banning were "unsubstantiated facts on display", despite the evidence above to the contrary. But he basically said I was allowed to comment again at WUWT.

So, I went back to WUWT. It lasted only as long.

I am usually trying to reply with polite words, even when faced with the most vicious and hateful attacks or with displays of extreme ignorance, although I may not have always been successful with my tries. However, I have some problems with diplomatic approaches. I rather tend to speak my mind, sometimes up to a fault, which can escalate situations, and it has caused me some troubles and scary moments in the past, e.g., in the country where I came from.

There have been several instances, when commenters on WUWT articulated their wish that violence was applied against climate scientists, including me as a person. For instance, the late Robert E. Phelan who even was a moderator at WUWT, wrote on April 14, 2012, addressed at me, "When the peasants come for you with their pitchforks and torches, you will have brought it on yourselves."

Yesterday (July 10, 2013), some other commenter, posting under the alias Allencic, from the anti-science crowd on WUWT articulated a similar wish, (combined with the delusional notion that the AGW deniers were in a situation like Jewish scientists in Nazi-Germany. The articulation of the wish for violence against climate scientists needs a strong rationalization to justify it), even though the commenter claimed later it just had been irony.

"God help us from these fools who claim to be climate scientists. When this finally blows up and the public realizes how badly they’ve been had you might want to invest in pitchforks and torches and tar and feathers."

Anthony Watts is growing a quasi-religious anti-science cult with his blog. And he is not the only one who makes propaganda against the findings of climate science and against climate scientists, using a combination of disinformation, junk science, inciting accusations against scientists and outright lies. There are other anti-science blogs and groups who are publicly agitating (e.g., the Heartland Institute) in the same way. If Watts does not do it himself, he tolerates it when it comes from his guest authors or followers. Therefore, I consider it very possible that some AGW-denier fanatics are going to use violence against climate scientists and scientific institutions, equally motivated, for instance, as religious fanatics are attacking abortion clinics. The grounds are laid. The hate is there, the viciousness is there.

I am a peaceful person, but I am not a pacifist. I am in favor of the right to self-defense, including armed one, if someone tries to apply violence against climate scientists (or any other innocent people). I articulated this on Watts' blog, although not as elaborated and with different words. Now, I am banned again. Permanently.